Nine's Political Editor Charles Croucher says Treasurer Jim Chalmers will be wary about crowing over a return to surplus in today's federal budget, with million of Australians hurting from the cost-of-living crisis.
The Albanese government is expected to forecast the first federal budget surplus in 15 years, on the back of a significant surge in revenue driven by soaring iron ore, coal and gas prices.
"It's a surplus that comes at the same time as so many Australians are hurting," Croucher told Today this morning.
READ MORE: Labor to forecast first budget surplus in 15 years
Despite becoming the first treasurer since Peter Costello in 2007-2008 to return the budget to black, Chalmers will be eager to spend some of the money on targeted cost-of-living relief.
"It's a big deal for a Labor government," said Croucher. It hasn't happened for a Labor treasurer since Paul Keating in 1988-98. That's how long it's been.
"In that $15 billion package the Government has spoken about with cost of living relief, we know there's going to be things like an increase in the payment for single parents or the age that people qualify for single parent payment.
"There is energy bill relief coming for five million households."
The expected return to the black is only temporary, with the bottom line forecast to return to deficit in years to come as revenue returns to more normal levels.
But inflation remains a continuing threat to the economy, Croucher said.
"That's the biggest challenge for this budget. It will be the biggest impost on household budgets across Australia as well."
Croucher was also quizzed by Today host Karl Stefanovic about how the surplus affects the $1 trillion in Australia's national debt.
"I think a lot of Australians sit back and we are back in surplus but didn't we have trillion dollars in debt last week?"
Croucher said increased government spending on big-ticket projects such as health, defence and the NDIS will add to Australia's national debt that is approaching $1 trillion.
"Surplus is for the next financial year. Now, the trillion dollars in debt is the accumulated total of all the budget bottom lines, effectively since the country started. That's what's approaching close to a trillion dollars."
Speaking this morning, Chalmers said it would be a 'responsible' budget'.
"It's carefully calibrated to address cost-of-living pressures in our communities, rather than add to them," the treasurer said.
"It's a budget in Labor's best traditions but also Australia's best traditions but also Australia's best traditions. Help for the vulnerable, broadening and extending more opportunities and investing in the future of our country and its people. In dollar term, it will show the biggest budget turn around on record as a consequence of our responsible economic management."
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