Russian President Vladimir Putin has an "uncertain" path ahead after one of his closest "confidants" appeared to have turned on him, Professor John Blaxland told Weekend Today.
The comments come after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the owner of the Wagner Group military company, called for an armed rebellion after accusing Russian forces of striking a military camp and killing thousands of his troops.
Those forces have since turned around and Prigozhin will now leave Russia for Belarus after a deal was struck.
But the fact remains the short-lived insurrection is the most serious threat to Putin's power in all the 23 years he has run the state.
READ MORE: Putin at risk of losing his iron grip on power
Blaxland told Weekend Today that Putin would be "very nervous" about what was to come.
"He's got to look over his shoulder," he said.
"This group has upturned politics in Russia."
US intelligence officials believes Prigozhin had been planning a major challenge to Russia's military leadership for quite some time, but it was unclear what the ultimate aim would be.
As Wagner forces marched towards Moscow they managed to take control of a key military facility in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don.
But within hours, after previously refusing to surrender, the Wagner chief announced his forces were turning around from their march toward the Russian capital.
READ MORE: Wagner chief to leave Russia for Belarus in deal that ends armed insurrection
Despite Putin branding the move "a stab in the back" on Saturday, Prigozhin will not face criminal charges.
Instead he will leave the nuclear superpower after striking a deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
Prigozhin has been publicly critical of Russia's military leadership and their handling of the war in Ukraine – with few consequences.
READ MORE: Ukrainian President's message about Putin as Russia plunged into crisis
Blaxland said the deal could have repercussions for Putin.
"It's severely damaged Putin's brand. There's all sorts of questions about what kind of deal has been struck," he said.
"This is not a special military operation. This is a catastrophe for Russia.
"It is unwarranted."
- WITH CNN
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